Summary of Mark Cole’s “Foundation and Reality:
Asimov’s Psychohistory and Its Real-World Parallels”
By: Zachary Defrancis
Isaac Asimov is well known for his writings about robotics, but this article focuses in on another of his famous concepts: psychohistory. The author begins by giving a thorough history of the concept. The term was originally used in several of Asimov’s Foundation novels by a character named Dr. Hari Seldon. From this series, psychohistory came to be known as a way to mathematically predict the actions of a large group of people using history, sociology and science. To further explain, the author compares the concept to Boyle’s gas law “The molecules in a gas move in a purely random way, and yet, collectively, that random behavior becomes predictable.”(Cole, Foundation and Reality) This was the basis of how psychohistory worked.
Throughout the rest of the essay, the author compares Dr. Seldon’s work to real world ideas that are similar to the fictional science of psychohistory. First, it is compared to Karl Marx’s idea of historical realism. Often seen as the inspiration for Asimov’s psychohistory, this view states that, “…new technologies and methods changed how people produced the things they needed, he argued, this changed all of society. This historical progression would lead inevitably through a series of necessary steps towards the ultimate goal of history: socialism.”(Cole) Though it did not involve much math, this theory somewhat resembles psychohistory. During the 1900’s, Oswald Spengler looked at the rise and fall of several empires, and found that they all followed a similar path of development and destruction. From this, Spengler was able to predict that every civilization followed a similar life cycle. Another theory, brought forward by historian Arnold Toynbee looked at a greater number of civilizations. Toynbee found that groups did not follow a strict lifecycle, but that it varied more in relation to the specific troubles endured by the group. The last relatable theory is brought forward in the ideas of sociologist Pitrim Sorokin. His concept broke civilizations into groups of, “ideational, in which the spiritual dominated society, and the sensate, which was concerned with purely material things.”(Cole) A good society would consist of a perfect balance, but sudden shifts between the two types could cause disaster.
All of the concepts brought forward in this article resembled Asimov’s idea of psychohistory except for one thing; no mathematical predictions were involved. Though these real-world ideas came close, none of them were able break down their respective parts into a mathematical process. In the end, the author reasons that no matter what theories are thought up in reality, none would come close to the effectiveness of psychohistory because, “the story of Hari Seldon is not of one of randomness and blind forces, determinism, and the laws of science, but of a single remarkable man whose actions reshape the history of the galaxy.”(Cole) No one in the real world could achieve this feat, therefore ideas that run parallel with psychohistory will never be achieved.
Throughout the rest of the essay, the author compares Dr. Seldon’s work to real world ideas that are similar to the fictional science of psychohistory. First, it is compared to Karl Marx’s idea of historical realism. Often seen as the inspiration for Asimov’s psychohistory, this view states that, “…new technologies and methods changed how people produced the things they needed, he argued, this changed all of society. This historical progression would lead inevitably through a series of necessary steps towards the ultimate goal of history: socialism.”(Cole) Though it did not involve much math, this theory somewhat resembles psychohistory. During the 1900’s, Oswald Spengler looked at the rise and fall of several empires, and found that they all followed a similar path of development and destruction. From this, Spengler was able to predict that every civilization followed a similar life cycle. Another theory, brought forward by historian Arnold Toynbee looked at a greater number of civilizations. Toynbee found that groups did not follow a strict lifecycle, but that it varied more in relation to the specific troubles endured by the group. The last relatable theory is brought forward in the ideas of sociologist Pitrim Sorokin. His concept broke civilizations into groups of, “ideational, in which the spiritual dominated society, and the sensate, which was concerned with purely material things.”(Cole) A good society would consist of a perfect balance, but sudden shifts between the two types could cause disaster.
All of the concepts brought forward in this article resembled Asimov’s idea of psychohistory except for one thing; no mathematical predictions were involved. Though these real-world ideas came close, none of them were able break down their respective parts into a mathematical process. In the end, the author reasons that no matter what theories are thought up in reality, none would come close to the effectiveness of psychohistory because, “the story of Hari Seldon is not of one of randomness and blind forces, determinism, and the laws of science, but of a single remarkable man whose actions reshape the history of the galaxy.”(Cole) No one in the real world could achieve this feat, therefore ideas that run parallel with psychohistory will never be achieved.